Thursday, July 16, 2015

Decision Points (#1/


Welcome to Decision Points, a column where I break down magic into its most basic components and walk you through how to  make well informed choices. The inspiration for this article comes from the work by Michael J. Flores on his Make the Play Monday series on TCG Player and decision making articles from Channel Fireball authors like LSV, PV, Owen Turtenwald, and William Jensen. I will not attempt to persuade you that my articles will be better in any way than the content of those authors, but I want to offer another article to help in what I consider the meat and potatoes of playing magic, proper decision making.

Before I begin I should start with a short introduction of myself and guide through this series. I’ve been playing since 7th edition  and am almost exclusively an MTGO Player. I really kicked my playing into high gear with the release of Rise of the Eldrazi online. RoE is my favorite limited format which might be because it ist he first set I was comfortable playing well and the set that really hooked me on Magic: The Gathering. From RoE forward I was able to play well enough to avoid putting any money into MTGO even when drafting up to 20 times a week. Yes, I know I’m a bit of a draft degenerate, but in my defense drafting is really fun

 Unfortunately around the release of Return to Ravnica I got cocky, developed bad habits, and burnt through my winnings and most of my collection. By the time Khans was released I had to put money into MTGO, and it became clear I was doing things the wrong way and needed to refocus on my Magic game. I came to realize that I was making fast and poor decisions without thinking things through when I actually was thinking at all. I was playing on autopilot and just assumed what I was doing was correct, because, after all, I had gone a long time without putting money into the game. I was wrong and I let my ego get in the way of good decision making, so I have been working to correct that flaw. Through this column I want to help you avoid the same mistakes of letting yourself go on autopilot and to help both of us develop tools to improve as decision makers.

For the first Decision Points I want to draw on my own experience in the DTK draft format. For this example you are playing the above Green/Black deck in game 3 of the finals. You’ve curved well, taking your opponent to 10 life, but they seem to have stabilized with a Noxious Dragon. Your face down morph is a Segmented Krotiq. It is your first main phase and none of your creatures have summoning sickness, so now you must decide how to play out your turn. Before reading on, you should take the time to decide on your own line and think “Why do I think this is correct?” When examining your play, the “why” behind the decision is often the most important aspect of the decision made.. If you understand why you made a correct response or error, you will understand how to improve and how to make better decisions.



Decision Making:
Human beings just can’t process everything that goes on in the world around them. There is too much sensory information for us to get through the day taking in and processing all the information around us. To get by, our brains have developed shortcuts to deal with all the information. Many MTG writers through its history have talked about the various cognitive shortcuts that people use and the biases they can lead to,so I won’t spend a thousand words explaining how your brain deals with the information.  For this article, the main point I want you to keep in mind is that human beings are influenced by the amount of incoming information we have available, the time we have available, and the amount of choices we can make.

I our current case we have multiple choices we could make. We have the ability to play any single card in our hand and the option to play two spells in this turn as well. We also have the choice of whether or not we need to attack this turn. In MTG we are also always in a time crunch, and we need to play at a pace that allows us to finish the round. On MTGO, we have just over 15 minutes, minus the time it will take us to play the rest of the game to decide on our answer. In a real life tournament, if you don’t make a timely decision you could earn a slow play warning, or worst. Being under time pressure and dealing with information overload is a great way to ensure people make poor decisions and obscure the optimal play.

What I did:
In this case, I couldn’t come up with a way to attack through the board state without allowing my opponent to get back the Dragon from the graveyard with the dutiful attendant. I chose to pinion feast, expecting my opponent to kill my morph, so I attacked for 3 and set up my opponent to replay the dragon at 7 life. I thought that put me at a good chance to deal with the dragon the next turn with press the advantage and put him to 3 life after trample damage with a 3/3 and 2 removal spells (Hunt and Coat). It took me around 4 minutes to make my play, too slow for in-tournament play, and I didn’t even make the best play. How I came to the decision was based on how much I valued board position and how bad the Noxious Dragon was for me in the long game if my opponent stabilized.

Because of information overload it was difficult to find the key interaction I missed, and if I wouldn’t have missed it, I would have most likely won on this turn or, at the worst, put the opponent to 1 life with me having 2 creatures and two removal spells. This simple change now turns this into a Duels of the Planeswalkers puzzle where you can narrow down the relevant information. I can further narrow it down by telling you to consider the interaction between trample and death touch. Do you see it? Here, let’s run through what you should have done.

What I should have done.
My evaluation of the Dragon being bad for my game play is correct as I have to “2 for 1” myself to get it off the board, and I have to “4 for 2” myself if he gets it back with the dutiful attendant. That’s rough and tough to beat, but we could all but lock up victory with what is probably the correct play.

The correct play, in my opinion, was to attack and then use press the advantage and coat with venom. This puts your opponent in a very awkward spot to survive the turn. The best block the opponent could make is to block Dragon on the 3/2 and dutiful attendant on the 3/3 morph, and even that puts them at 1 life as you Press the Advantage the blocked creatures, and use coat with venom on the 3/2 shield-breakers. You assign 1 damage to the dragon and 5 trample to the opponent. This was the key interaction: trample and deathtouch. This combo allows you to assign only 1 damager because, due to deathtouch, you only have to assign a solitary damage to any creature to kill it. Your emissary hits for 1 and your morph tramples over for 3 damage. The opponent most likely kills the morph with noxious dragon’s trigger and brings back the dragon to their hand. You are left with a 1/1 emissary, a 3/2 shield-breakers, pinion feast, and hunt the weak. However, that is the best case scenario for your opponent, and if they block the emissary at all they die.

During matches and drafts, I like to take notes on interesting decision points and I recommend you do the same. If I can I ask friends for their opinion and some may even get further opinions from their friends. I like the different points of view I get from listening to others. This alternate point of view is a great learning tool in MTG. Rarely will there be one correct line of play and there will often be several reasonable lines During this column, we may not have a for sure correct line. We can evaluate how/why we made our decision and move on from there. In this case I know I just missed an interaction that would have changed my reasoning. This took me around an hour to understand, and if, you are wondering, that is about 59 minutes and 50 seconds longer than it took a platinum pro to come to the same answer when a friend asked them their opinion. Until the next Decision Points, may the variance be with you.


-DJ

No comments:

Post a Comment